主讲人：李华晨 副教授（凯尼恩学院）

主持人：兰兰 助理教授（辽宁大学李安民经济研究院）

嘉宾介绍：余莉 助理教授（辽宁大学李安民经济研究院）

时间：2026年5月14日（周四） 14:00 - 15:30 （北京时间）

地点：辽宁大学蒲河校区经济学部大楼483室

线上地址：腾讯会议730-281-8924

语言：中文/英文

摘要：This paper constructs a new quarterly measure of fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) for China from 1995Q1 to 2025Q2 by estimating a fiscal reaction function with time varying volatility. In a structural VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, FPU shocks persistently lower real activity, consumer confidence, and equity returns, and account for a meaningful share of macroeconomic fluctuations. The positive short-run effect of an expansionary fiscal shock largely disappears once the uncertainty that historically accompanies fiscal intervention is taken into account, except during episodes of severe stress. A calibrated central–local fiscal model rationalizes these results through an uncertainty channel that operates via financing, local implementation, and future fiscal adjustment.

主讲人简介：

  李华晨，美国凯尼恩学院副教授，美国北卡罗来纳州立大学经济学博士。研究领域为宏观经济学和应用时间序列。其研究成果已发表于Journal of Money Credit and Banking，Macroeconomic Dynamics等国际期刊。