主讲人：冯翔宇 副教授（厦门大学邹至庄经济研究院）

主持人：谢聪 助理教授（辽宁大学中国经济研究院）

嘉宾介绍：侯尚迪 助理教授（辽宁大学中国经济研究院）

时间：2026年4月17日（周五）  10：00-11：30（北京时间）

地点：辽宁大学崇山校区五洲园一楼会议室

线上地址： #腾讯会议：536-371-556

语言：中文/英文

摘要：This paper examines the impact of demand shocks on firms' technology adoption decisions. Empirically, I document that in economies experiencing permanent positive demand shocks, capital vintages incorporating more advanced technologies diffuse more slowly than older vintages. This finding is difficult to reconcile with standard theories featuring either exogenous adoption costs or endogenous costs arising from production disruption. I then propose a general framework with binary-state Markovian idiosyncratic demand shocks and profit realization lags. Because of the lags in profit realization, adoption costs emerge endogenously when firms choose the optimal timing of adoption to balance short-term loss in profits with expected long-term gains. Under this setup, an asymmetric aggregate demand shock that favors the high-demand state disproportionately increases adoption costs relative to benefits for firms in the high-demand state, creating a disincentive for adoption and enabling the model to generate aggregate technology diffusion patterns that are consistent with the empirical evidence.

主讲人简介：

 冯翔宇，经济学博士，现任厦门大学邹至庄经济研究院副教授，博士生导师，《中国经济问题》编委。他的研究基于丰富的微观数据，结合严谨的实证工具和结构模型，重点关注宏观环境对异质性经济个体的影响，形成了一系列具有一定影响力的研究成果。近年来冯翔宇在 Journal of Public Economics，Economic Journal, American Economics Journal: Macroeconomics 等多部国际知名期刊发表论文多篇。此外，冯翔宇还主持或参与多项国家级科研项目。